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Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Patterns
All-day SST data were obtained from the Along-Track Scanning Radiometer and the Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (collectively called (A)ATSR) instruments on board of the European Remote Sensing and ENVISAT satellites. We used the Gridded Surface Temperature full resolution product (1 km).
The SST climate (1991-2008) in the study area was characterised using five data layers: (1) average temperature, (2) standard deviation, (3) minimum and (4) maximum monthly mean, proxies for local tolerance thresholds, and (5) the probability of occurrence of warm anomalies (hot spots greater than 1°C: Strong et al. 1997).
The thermal regime of an area determines the environmental setting of the communities and influences variability in bleaching response and post-bleaching mortality. In the NMBRS, shallow waters at the Bays (Ascension, Espiritu Santo and Chetumal), atoll lagoons and the barrier reef lagoon experience colder average SSTs, colder winters and broader variation. Warmer waters and more frequent thermal anomalies are experienced in areas of slow water flow, as in the Gulf of Honduras, and in shallow and sheltered regions on the internal side of the bays and atoll lagoons.
Thermal Regimes Experienced by Corals
Figure 1. Acute and chronic thermal stress categories.
The approach for classifying reefs by thermal regime was developed by the Remote Sensing Working Group of the World Bank / GEF Coral Reef Targeted Research Project. Due to the limited temporal resolution of the (A)ATSR dataset (=35 days), the 4 km NOAA AVHRR pathfinder product was used for the generation of this data layer. The filtered 4 km weekly mapped product used (1985-2005) was provided by Scott Heron, William Skirving and Mark Eakin of Coral Reef Watch, NOAA.
The response of corals to thermal stress depends on the temperatures that they are acclimated to (chronic stress) and the prolonged, elevated temperatures that they experience during disturbance events (acute stress). We used the maximum of monthly mean temperatures experienced over the entire 21 year dataset as a measure of chronic stress. The frequency of degree heating weeks during the mass bleaching event in 1998 was used as a measure of acute stress.
Reefs can be classified according to their past temperature patterns into the following categories: (A) high chronic (thus acclimated) and low acute stress, expected to cope best with rising temperatures, (B) high chronic and high acute stress, where the selection for more thermally-tolerant genotypes would be greatest, (C) low chronic and low acute stress, not acclimated to any thermal stress and expected to be fair badly if subjected to unusual warming, and (D) low chronic and high acute stress, likely to be the worst-affected by climate change (Figure 1).
Areas that are predicted to fare better under future climate change (from a thermal perspective, A) are rare and scattered across the study area, mainly in the barrier reef and the atolls. Areas with high selection pressure (B) are located in shallow sheltered areas with slow water flow, such as at the Gulf of Honduras or on the leeward side of the barrier lagoon, while areas that are expected to fair worst under a climate change scenario are distributed mainly in the north of the study area.
Vulnerability of Reefs to Phase Shifts
 Figure 2. (a) Exposure map for the study area (16.2-20.2°N 87.0-88.4°W). Land and reef crest are black. Relative exposure measures ranges from 0 to 0.3 J/m³ (b) detailed region showing shading effects.
Wave exposure, a proxy for estimating the vulnerability of reefs to phase shifts, was calculated using the method described by Ekebom et al. (2003) and Harborne et al. (2006), where the exposure of a location is a function of the shape of the basin, and the routine wind speed and direction. The original method was improved (1) by including spatial variability in wind fields using scatterometer wind data, due to the large size of the study area and the variable wind distribution over the NMBRS and (2) by assessing the wave exposure along the coastline and additionally along reef-crest areas. This last addition is particularly important in the NMBRS where reefs are not always located at the land-ocean boundary.
Wind speed and direction for the period 2004-2008 were obtained from the Active Microwave Instrument (AM) on board of the ERS-2. The product used was the wind scatterometer fast delivery product, with a spatial resolution of 25 km. Landsat imagery (25 m) was used to identify coastline and reef-crest areas.
Areas with high wave exposure and faster algal growth are more prone to an increase in macroalgae abundance if grazers are absent. Regional variations in wave exposure within the NMBRS are characterised by higher values at the north of the barrier reef, between Ambergris Cay and Belize City, where the winds are strongest. At a local scale, the seaward side of the atolls and the barrier reef (unless shadowed by a reef structure to the east) experience higher exposures and are thus the most vulnerable to algal blooms if their reefs are depleted of herbivorous fishes (Figure 2).
Connectivity
Larval connectivity data was provided by Dr. Claire Paris. The model was parameterised using oceanographic data for August 2003.
Coral reef persistence and recovery following disturbance events depend not only on coral growth, but also upon the arrival of larvae to reseed the population. Larval transport is driven by the general pattern of currents in the area and coincides with previous wide-scale assessments for the Caribbean (Cowen et al. 2006). Reefs at the extremes of the study area exhibit some isolation. Offshore atolls serve mainly as sources of larvae, while reefs in the barrier reef have the highest number of connections.
Habitat mapping
Mumby and Harborne (1999) produced a reef habitat classification for Belize and this scheme was used to map reefs in two sections of the NMBRS. The first map covers the southern extreme of the barrier reef (16.16-16.70°N, 87.83-88.41°W) and the second covers the central section of the barrier reef, the Turneffe Islands and Lighthouse reef (17.04-17.82°N, 87.07-88.18°W). The existing maps created from 1997 Landsat imagery were updated using the most recent Quickbird and Landsat imagery. The maps were produced using water column correction, supervised classification and contextual editing.
In the NMBRS, shallow areas are covered mainly by seagrass and sand. Coral reefs are located on the seaward side of the barrier reef, around the atolls and rhomboid reefs. Within the Barrier, reefs are rare in the south, in the Gulf of Honduras. Reefs are also scarce around the deep shipping channel south of Belize City, an area characterised by low water quality.
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